Severe Weather Probabilities
Ensemble probability of event occurring any time within specified time period within 25-mi of a point. Probabilities are then smoothed with Gaussian smoother (sigma=120km).

These thresholds were calibrated for Spring-time convection, and thus may not be appropriate for other periods (e.g. cool season severe weather events).
Day 1 Severe Weather Verification
Day 1 (12Z Fri - 12Z Sat)
UH >= 75
UH >= 150
Sig Tor Parameter (>= 1.0)
Sig Tor Parameter (>= 3.0)
Severe Wind (>= 50 knots)
Thompson Hail (>= 1")
Gagne Hail (>= 1")
Heavy Precip (>= 1"/hr)
Lightning
SPC 06Z Day 1 Forecast
Day 2 (12Z Sat - 00Z Sun)
UH >= 75
UH >= 150
Sig Tor Parameter (>= 1.0)
Sig Tor Parameter (>= 3.0)
Severe Wind (>= 50 knots)
Thompson Hail (>= 1")
Gagne Hail (>= 1")
Heavy Precip (>= 1"/hr)
Lightning
SPC 06Z Day 2 Forecast