Severe Weather & Precipitation Verification

Ensemble surrogate severe probability forecasts (E-SSPFs) are produced using Gaussian-smoothed (sigma=120km) ensemble probabilities for an event (e.g. UH>75 m2/s2) occurring any time within the specified time period within 25-mi of a point.

These thresholds were calibrated for Spring-time convection, and thus may not be appropriate for other periods (e.g. cool season severe weather events).

NEW: Verification of 2015-16 UH >= 75 E-SSPFs
Day 1 (12Z-12Z) E-SSPFs
UH >= 75
UH >= 75, Wind >= 22 ms-1 or Thomp Hail >= 1"
QPF >= 1"/hr
CREF >= 40 dBZ
24-hr QPF
Fhr 0-24 Ens Mean QPF
Fhr 0-24 MRMS QPE
Fhr 25-48 Ens Mean QPF
Fhr 25-48 MRMS QPE
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Initialized 00 UTC Sun 16 Jul 2017
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